Upset Index

Results against the odds

Shock wins

least expected
1–0vs Manchester City11.1% likely · 920131–0vs Manchester City15.4% likely · 6.520121–0vs Manchester City15.4% likely · 6.520121–0vs Arsenal16.7% likely · 620092–1at AFC Wimbledon16.7% likely · 620045–0at Luton Town16.7% likely · 620073–0vs Wolves16.7% likely · 620181–0at Tranmere Rovers18.2% likely · 5.520203–1at Plymouth Argyle18.2% likely · 5.520212–1vs Manchester United19% likely · 5.2520162–0at Gillingham19% likely · 5.2520201–0at Bristol Rovers19% likely · 5.2520213–0at Burton19% likely · 5.2520213–0at Doncaster Rovers19% likely · 5.2520213–0at AFC Wimbledon20% likely · 52021

Surprise defeats

when we were favourites
0–2at Arsenal91.7% likely · 1.0920170–2at Chelsea89.3% likely · 1.1220050–1at Manchester United87.7% likely · 1.1420081–5at Chelsea87.7% likely · 1.1420170–1at Manchester United86.2% likely · 1.1620072–3at Arsenal86.2% likely · 1.1620070–2at Chelsea86.2% likely · 1.1620071–3at Arsenal85.5% likely · 1.1720020–5at Chelsea85.5% likely · 1.1720080–2at Liverpool85.5% likely · 1.1720161–2at Liverpool85.5% likely · 1.1720141–2at Fulham84.7% likely · 1.1820181–2at Manchester United83.3% likely · 1.220031–3at Arsenal83.3% likely · 1.220051–3at Manchester United83.3% likely · 1.22012

Based on pre-match odds (2010–present, where available). “% likely” is the bookmakers’ implied chance of a Sunderland win.